'In the current environment, India is effectively paying a premium for supply security and diversification.'
India is significantly expanding its crude oil sourcing to Latin America, with Venezuela emerging as a major supplier, as geopolitical disruptions in the Middle East and the Strait of Hormuz compel the world's third-largest oil consumer to diversify its energy supplies.
India significantly increased its crude oil imports from Russia and the United Arab Emirates in June, securing supplies as the Strait of Hormuz began to reopen, with Russian barrels remaining attractive due to discounts and UAE supplies offsetting earlier uncertainties.
A US-sanctioned tanker carrying Iranian crude oil has rerouted mid-voyage from its previously indicated destination of India to China, raising questions about payment issues and the future of India's Iranian oil imports.
After a three-month slowdown, India's oil imports (already landed) from Russia bounced back in the first 15 days of October to 1.8 million barrels per day.
Analysts predict India will face oil price volatility and macroeconomic effects due to the escalating Iran crisis, though the country's oil supply chain is not yet structurally insecure.
India possesses approximately 100 million barrels of commercial crude oil stocks, capable of covering 40-45 days of its requirements if flows through the Strait of Hormuz are disrupted, according to Kpler.
'No one can or will bar India from pursuing its energy goals as it wishes.' 'The US FTA wording may sound more restrictive, but the underlying reality will not undermine India's sovereign energy decisions.'
India is set to reduce its direct imports of Russian crude from late November, following new US sanctions on Rosneft and Lukoil, effective November 21.
India's crude oil imports from Russia saw a marginal decline in September, but continued to account for over one-third of the country's total oil purchases, despite US pressure to curb the trade over concerns that it supports Moscow's war effort in Ukraine. India's crude imports in September were around 4.7 million barrels per day, up 220,000 bpd month-on-month and flat year-on-year.
India will restrict crude oil purchases from Russia as part of an agreement reached with the US in exchange for lower trade tariffs, sources said, adding imports will continue for now by refiners such as Nayara Energy, which have no other alternative source. US President Donald Trump announced overnight that the United States will cut the reciprocal tariff on imports of Indian goods to 18 per cent from 25 per cent under a broader bilateral understanding.
Reliance Industries Ltd, India's largest buyer of Russian oil and most impacted by the latest US sanctions, on Friday said it will comply with all applicable restrictions and will adjust its refinery operations to meet compliance requirements.
India's crude oil imports from Russia strengthened in the first half of October, reversing a three-month slide in arrivals seen during July-September as refineries were back on full stream to meet festive demand, according to ship tracking data.
India's annual oil import bill could rise by $9-11 billion if the country is compelled to move away from Russian crude in response to US threats of additional tariffs or penalties on Indian exports, analysts said. India, the world's third-largest oil consumer and importer, has reaped significant benefits by swiftly substituting market-priced oil with discounted Russian crude following Western sanctions on Moscow after its invasion of Ukraine in February 2022.
India's purchase of Russian oil has risen to 2 million barrels per day in August, as refiners continue to prioritise economic considerations in their sourcing decisions. As much as 38 per cent out of an estimated 5.2 million barrels per day of crude oil imported in the first half of August came from Russia, according to global real-time data and analytics provider Kpler.
Indian private sector and State-run refiners continued to receive crude oil from Russian suppliers even after November 21 -- the winding-down date for US sanctions on supplies from leading Russian oil producers imposed in October -- as new intermediaries sprung up in West Asia to sell the oil, according to senior refining sources and ship tracking data.
Indian refiners are likely to import 2-2.2 million barrels per day of Russian crude oil in June - the highest in the last two years and more than the total volumes bought from Iraq, Saudi Arabia, the UAE and Kuwait, preliminary data by global trade analytics firm Kpler showed.
Sanctioning Russian oil would have led to a sharp surge in oil prices to above $80 per barrel levels, which would impact pump prices in the US ahead of midterm elections next year.
